A summary of this week’s news on Euro currency

The euro crisis has returned to haunt politicians and economists this week with Greece potentially facing bankruptcy, Spain getting closer to a bailout, and Germany risking its top credit rating. 

With prolonged economic weakness and spillover for the currency bloc, Greece will, with 90% chance as predicted by the Citigroup Inc., leave the euro zone in the next 12 to 18 months.  Read the detailed news in this link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-25/citigroup-sees-90-chance-that-greece-leaves-euro.html

Ifo Institute for Economic Research has estimated that if Greece become insolvent and quits the euro zone, Germany should expect a loss of up to 82 billion euros, while if an insolvent Greece remains within the single currency bloc it would cost Berlin 89 billion euros.  Read the detailed news in this link and pay special attention to the paragraph at the end: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/25/us-germany-economists-euro-idUSBRE86O0FA20120725

So, it follows logically that German politicians will try to steer euro zone policies towards the direction which would minimize its country's loss.

After studying the Ifo report, German Economy Minister Philipp Rösler has drawn his conclusion - Greek exit from the euro had "lost its horrors" - making such a comment during his interview with ARD TV on Sunday. Some senior members in Germany's ruling coalition also agreed with him. http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-minister-roesler-criticized-for-comments-about-greece-a-846110.html

On Monday, the day after Rösler’s comment, the financial market reacted to the uncertainty of the currency - the euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar in more than 2 years.

The Domino effect of credit ratings

Also on Monday, the Credit ratings agency Moody's slashed its outlook for the creditworthiness of not only Germany, but also of the Netherlands and Luxembourg to "negative" from "stable."

Though Moody's maintained its triple-A ratings for all three countries, it said the increasingly uncertain outlook stemming from the European debt crisis was behind the changes.  Read detailed news from this link. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-press-on-moody-s-cut-to-german-credit-outlook-a-846322.html

A group of economists are calling for a radical restructuring of Europe and the euro zone to prevent a disaster of incalculable proportions.  Read “Economists Warn EU on Threshold of Catastrophe" http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/debt-crisis-economists-warn-of-euro-catastrophe-a-846327.html

NY-based Institute for new economic thinking, INET, on July 23 2012 released a report stating that politicians need to move decisively and timely to save the euro currency or else it could disintegrate.  Read the report “Breaking the deadlock: a path out of the crisis” 

http://ineteconomics.org/sites/inet.civicactions.net/files/INET%20Council%20on%20the%20Euro%20Zone%20Crisis%20-%2023-7-12.pdf

Europe, with many different languages and the unforgettable history of wars among them, although the Eurovision has members extending to Asia, it is skeptical that Europe has a united vision.

Without a political union, the monetary union doesn't seem to work.

By the way, when I visited Germany I was puzzled as to why a kilogram of peach from producers in Imathia Ημαθία were sold cheaper in Munich than in Athens, after transporting farther away? Who is controlling the pricing of fresh produce?

Meanwhile, in Greece people will continue to cope with austerity measures with bartering, euro money has no use here when people have very little income.

Other links:

You may also be interested in this previous post.

Derivatives and public debt management by Gustavo Piga

Not familiar with the EU organization’s jargons? Here is a quick reference http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3595155.stm

Norway’s T & T

The first T is talent, yes!

He is such a rybak!  Don’t stop here, read on to see what I mean.

A late but very sincere congratulations to Norway, a country that is not a member of the EU (so you know a bit of the geopolitics), who is also this year’s undisputable winner of the Eurovision.  Everybody likes the Fairytale (listen to the winning performance), and this young fellow, Alexander Rybak (see his brief biography) has got talent!

The lyrics of the winning song:

Years ago when I was younger
I kinda’ liked a girl I knew.
She was mine, and we were sweethearts,
That was then, but then it’s true

I’m in love with a fairytale
Even though it hurts.
‘Cause I don’t care if I lose my mind;
I’m already cursed

Every day we started fighting,
Every night we fell in love.
No one else could make me sadder,
But no one else could lift me high above

I don’t know what I was doing
But suddenly we fell apart.
Nowadays I cannot find her.
But when I do we’ll get a brand new start

I’m in love with a fairytale
Even though it hurts.
Cause I don’t care if I lose my mind;
I’m already cursed

She’s a fairytale
Yeah
Even though it hurts.
Cause I don’t care if I lose my mind;
I’m already cursed

The second T is traitor, oh no!

Born 99 years earlier than Rybak is a Norwegian called Quisling, and he is a traitor whose name became a word in the dictionary equivalent to a traitor.  You can enter yourself the word “quisling” on the Cambridge dictionary and the Urban dictionary to see the definitions.

A word Norwegians are not very proud of having given to the world: it derives from Vidkun Quisling (1887-1945), a Norwegian politician who collaborated with the Nazis during World War II. He established his name as a synonym for "traitor", someone who collaborates with the invaders of his country, especially by serving in a puppet government.   It is, arguably, the worst and most grave insult a Norwegian can throw at another.  That guy, he is such a quisling! 

So, maybe soon, “he is such a rybak!” will mean “he is such a guy with music talent!” 

And maybe soon too, “Ma-yon-gi-ou (馬傭求) will be the synonym for “Taiwanese traitor” or “Chinese kiss ass” in the dictionary.

By the way, you must know Taiwanese pronunciation of the Chinese phrases “附傭” and “懇求” to understand the joke above.  It's a joke, but it's a SERIOUS warning!

Related reading in Chinese: 

台灣好多奎斯林 

◎ 李濠仲 

一九四○年四月十五日，英國泰晤士報以「到處都是奎斯林」（Quislings everywhere）作社論標題。日後字典對Quisling的解釋是「如傀儡一般，協助敵人占領自己國家的叛徒」，簡稱賣國賊。 

二戰期間，德國納粹在挪威扶植傀儡政府，奎斯林正是主動臣服其下的挪威政客，他的名字Quisling因此成為英文裡「賣國賊」的通稱，不僅自己遺臭萬年，也成為挪威人心中的痛。

continue to read the entire article in Chinese on the Libertytimes.

Greece qualifies for the Eurovision final

Perhaps many kids will have trouble waking up to go to school in the morning.  But the wait was worth it because Greece did it again.

Greece will be advanced to the final in the Eurovision song contest.  We waited patiently until a little bit past 12 o’clock, and finally the Greek flag showed up on the TV screen, it was the last country announced to qualify for the final.

Congratulations to the Sakis team!

You can follow the song word by word here.  I didn't know what he was singing about until I found this now.

There are many video clips on the Youtube, just type in "This is our night", but this one has the background showing the Athens Acropolis and the Panathinaiko Stadium.